In June, industrial activity plummeted: 8.1% fell in relation to June 2017, according to the Monthly Industrial Estimator (EMI) prepared and disseminated by INDEC. This fall nullifies almost all the progress that the sector had in the first months of the year and accumulates at the end of the first half a rise of only 1%. The figures reflect the impact of the devaluation and the acceleration of inflation on this sector of production.
Just in June was the month when the dollar approached 30 pesos and inflation soared 3.7%. In addition, the monetary turnstile applied by the Central Bank to control both the exchange rate and the price spike, interest rates soared to over 40% per year, which was an unequivocal brake on activity and consumption.
90% of the industrial blocks registered falls in June. In relation to June 2017 “there were decreases in the refining of oil (-19.9%), the automotive industry (-11.8%), rubber and plastic products (-11.1%), metalworking , excluding the automotive industry (-10.9%), the textile industry (-10.8%), the manufacture of chemical substances and products (-10.0%), the tobacco industry (-9.7%) , the food industry (-5.4%), the edition and printing (-4.2%), non-metallic mineral products (-3.7%) and the block of paper and cardboard (-1.2%) . On the other hand, basic metal industries recorded a rise (9.8%) “due to the 11% increase in steel production.
Forward, for the third quarter almost half of the companies (45.8%) anticipate a drop in domestic demand; 41.2% foresee a stable rhythm; 13.0% expect an increase. In exports, the numbers are less negative since “49% do not anticipate changes in their total exports; 33.3% expect a rise and 17.7% expect a decrease “.
Due to the drought, the activity suffered a severe fall in May: it fell 5.8% per year
Meanwhile, in terms of industrial employment, the bulk (70.4%) does not expect changes in the staffing, but the rest are more companies that expect to reduce their staffing (21%) than those who expect to take more people (8.6%).
“Regarding the number of hours worked by the personnel affected to the productive process, 63.4% of the companies do not anticipate changes; 27.1% anticipate a fall; 9.5% foresees an increase, “says the report.